How much is Humphrey and the Smith family worth?

[bigjim]

I thought it might be fun to try and guestimate now that the pub list has identified about 270 - some 30 in London. Given that recently Fullers were involved in 10 London pubs changing hands for ?93 million, that makes each pub worth about ?10 million. So lets say the Smiths London pubs might be worth about ?300 million on that basis. That leaves another 240 we know of - lets be really conservative and say an average of ?1 million each = ?240 million. I know there's some tatty stuff - but also some really prime bits of city centre property like Manchester, Leeds and Gloucester. So with adding in the Brewery and virtually the whole of the centre of Tadcaster - say another ?50 million; farm land; two large houses with estates; a brewery in Stamford; all the vacant property in places like Leeds and other large cities - we are not not far off ?700 million. Ok, not very scientific, but a start. Would anyone like to suggest refinements - I suggest we only aim to get to the nearest 100 million.     

[humphrey]

To be realistic as to the worth of the smiths I do not think that we are looking into the hundreds of millions. A figure of at least ?1.3 billion is what is rumoured in the financial and property profession, considering his docklands portfolio.

[yorkie]

There are  problems with this approach,

1)   We are only quantifying assets, to get a full picture the liabilities also need to be taken into account.

2)   We cannot assume every pub that sells Sams is owned by the brewery, many could be leased, especially in London.

3)   We are largely looking at the brewery estate, the land could be worth far more depending on how much there is and where.

I have no doubt that the family are extremely wealthy but trying to put a figure on it is impossible, just as Humphrey wants.

[357maddog]

I think when he appeared on the "rich list"...if my memory serves me right it was something in the region of 6-7 Billion?
I could be wrong but lots of people share the same opinion.

[passedit]

In 1990 on our training course Mike & Gwyn the training officers said at the time the family were the 8th richest in the country. Thats some money

[OnTheDrink]

There are  problems with this approach,

1)   We are only quantifying assets, to get a full picture the liabilities also need to be taken into account.

2)   We cannot assume every pub that sells Sams is owned by the brewery, many could be leased, especially in London.

3)   We are largely looking at the brewery estate, the land could be worth far more depending on how much there is and where.

I have no doubt that the family are extremely wealthy but trying to put a figure on it is impossible, just as Humphrey wants.

All very true apart from the leasehold angle - they do not entertain leased properties and they hold the freehold on the lot - especially the London pubs. That said, for accounting purposes, a long lease (99 years plus,  etc) would be treated as freehold.

[SILLYSOD]

as a human being hes worth ................NOWT

[bigjim]

To be realistic as to the worth of the smiths I do not think that we are looking into the hundreds of millions. A figure of at least ?1.3 billion is what is rumoured in the financial and property profession, considering his docklands portfolio.

Hi Humphrey and wecome aboard,

I guess it's too much to hope that you might be the elusive Mr Smith? Lol

Assuming you are not, I have also heard the same figure quoted, together with much reference to property holdings in Docklands. Can you shed a bit more light on what the rumours within the property and financial world say exactly..........?

Cheers.

[bigjim]

I think when he appeared on the "rich list"...if my memory serves me right it was something in the region of 6-7 Billion?
I could be wrong but lots of people share the same opinion.

Unfortunately I think this is indeed a conflated rumour - I have it on good authority that he has never featured in the Rich List. However, I understand that there was an article in a paper that speculated as to his worth and it was this article that sent him 'loopy' and led to the pub estate becoming 'invisible'.

[bigjim]

There are  problems with this approach,

1)   We are only quantifying assets, to get a full picture the liabilities also need to be taken into account.

2)   We cannot assume every pub that sells Sams is owned by the brewery, many could be leased, especially in London.

3)   We are largely looking at the brewery estate, the land could be worth far more depending on how much there is and where.

I have no doubt that the family are extremely wealthy but trying to put a figure on it is impossible, just as Humphrey wants.

Yes, I've been pondering the question of possible liabilities to set against property assets too, and common sense says that would be right, but I've come to the conclusion it's not relevant for our purpose. My reasoning is to point to how the wealth of the aristocracy is treated in the Rich List. All their rolling acres are merely totted up and a rough guestimate made as to value. No mention is made that they might all be mortgaged up to the hilt or for instance have huge deferred liabilities for repairs to their mansions. The same goes in calculating the wealth of the Church of England, Oxbridge, Duchy of Cornwall etc etc. It's not going to be easy, but totting up the real estate owned by the Smith family is as good a way of estimating wealth as any. I think Humphrey knows this and is the reason why the pubs became invisible.

[bigjim]

To be realistic as to the worth of the smiths I do not think that we are looking into the hundreds of millions. A figure of at least ?1.3 billion is what is rumoured in the financial and property profession, considering his docklands portfolio.

Well guys and gals, it's nearly that time of year again when the Sunday Times Rich List is published - this coming Sunday 25th April in fact - and I'm fairly sure Humphrey and family will not feature due to the difficulties in making an accurate estimate. Here we have what somebody says the rumours are in the 'financial and property profession'.

We've been quietly identifying the pubs, both trading and boarded up, the odd quarry, vacant city centre block, brewery here and there, etc, etc that we are sure about, but there is undoubtedly more to find, especially those elusive bits of Docklands. But lets be cautious - better to under-estimate than wildly over-estimate in my view, and then on Sunday it will be interesting to see whereabouts he and the family wealth might be reasonably placed.

Oh - and the reason for doing this by the way is because I think it seriously annoys him.   

[DarkieBoy]

I thought it might be fun to try and guestimate now that the pub list has identified about 270 - some 30 in London. Given that recently Fullers were involved in 10 London pubs changing hands for ?93 million, that makes each pub worth about ?10 million. So lets say the Smiths London pubs might be worth about ?300 million on that basis. That leaves another 240 we know of - lets be really conservative and say an average of ?1 million each = ?240 million. I know there's some tatty stuff - but also some really prime bits of city centre property like Manchester, Leeds and Gloucester. So with adding in the Brewery and virtually the whole of the centre of Tadcaster - say another ?50 million; farm land; two large houses with estates; a brewery in Stamford; all the vacant property in places like Leeds and other large cities - we are not not far off ?700 million. Ok, not very scientific, but a start. Would anyone like to suggest refinements - I suggest we only aim to get to the nearest 100 million.     

I've identified 39 pubs in "London", that is, within the M25.

DB.

[DarkieBoy]

There are  problems with this approach,

1)   We are only quantifying assets, to get a full picture the liabilities also need to be taken into account.

2)   We cannot assume every pub that sells Sams is owned by the brewery, many could be leased, especially in London.

3)   We are largely looking at the brewery estate, the land could be worth far more depending on how much there is and where.

I have no doubt that the family are extremely wealthy but trying to put a figure on it is impossible, just as Humphrey wants.

All very true apart from the leasehold angle - they do not entertain leased properties and they hold the freehold on the lot - especially the London pubs. That said, for accounting purposes, a long lease (99 years plus,  etc) would be treated as freehold.

SS do have leasehold property in London, eg. Duke of York (which has now closed).

[bigjim]

   
[/quote]

I've identified 39 pubs in "London", that is, within the M25.

DB.
[/quote]

DarkieBoy - there's no doubt we are all doing a great job here tracking down Humphrey's elusive pubs - but we're going to have to be a bit more scientific I think in getting an authoritative list. For example, I was surprised by your figure of 39 London pubs - I thought it was nearer to 30 - and noticed the Montague Arms, New Cross. I don't think this can be an SS pub as they have live music mentioned on BITE.

Is there any way you can get your list into alphabetical order - except possibly the London ones and group them together. Just an idea. Cheers. 

[DarkieBoy]

Hi there,

Putting the list of pubs on my map into alphabetical order is on my list of "Things to do".  I've personally been to 24 of the London pubs and I know someone else who's been to another ten.

Ye Olde Cheshire Cheese has had live music in the downstairs bar in the recent past too, so I am not totally surprised.

Cheers,

Mark.

PS. Keep reminding me about the list and making it alphabetical!